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Currently, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage stands at around 6.9%, a significant decrease from late October when it peaked at nearly 8%. Despite expectations of rates declining later in the year, some buyers are opting to act now due to fears of increased competition. The combination of high mortgage rates and soaring home prices has made affordability a major concern, with many households earning less than what's needed to afford a median-priced home. While economists anticipate mortgage rates easing, uncertainty remains.

There are ongoing bipartisan efforts at various levels of government to address housing supply and pricing challenges in the United States. The importance of local action in addressing these issues, particularly through measures such as accessory dwelling units (ADUs), changes in zoning rules, and reduction of lot sizes, is increasingly becoming evident. Despite political differences, lawmakers in some states are collaborating on bipartisan housing legislation. However, challenges such as NIMBYism hinder progress at the local level, prompting calls for state-level intervention to overcome resistance to housing reforms. 

According to a recent market study report by Arizent, where the company surveyed professionals across different financial segments such as banking, insurance, mortgage, technology etc, there is a range of different opinions about AI. Most respondents have concerns over job displacement and ethical considerations persist, especially regarding generative AI's accuracy and fairness. The general attitude among mortgage professionals is to be hyper cautious towards adopting generative AI, and they citied uncertainty and budget constraints as top considerations. Some of the main concerns of industry professionals regarding the adoption of AI includes loss of personalized customer interactions and job security. Despite apprehensions, there's acknowledgment of AI's potential to enhance efficiency and job performance, with expectations of AI handling a significant portion of tasks within the next five years. While efficiency gains are anticipated across various industries, banking professionals foresee AI primarily bolstering fraud protection.

There has been an emergence in partnerships between healthcare systems and affordable housing developers, such as the H3C project in New Orleans, aiming to integrate stable housing with better health outcomes. Supported by investments from entities like Aetna and Kaiser Permanente, these initiatives reflect a growing recognition among health organizations of the benefits of addressing housing insecurity. While healthcare systems are not acting as banks, they are bridging gaps in funding for affordable housing, leveraging resources to meet community needs and their own nonprofit requirements. Such collaborations extend beyond traditional housing projects to include specialized care facilities and initiatives targeting populations with the greatest needs. Additionally, healthcare systems are exploring innovative approaches, including utilizing their land assets and collecting data to inform future partnerships and interventions aimed at addressing health and housing disparities.

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In California, state and local governments have allocated substantial funds for affordable housing initiatives. Despite widespread acknowledgment of the need for affordable housing, publicly funded initiatives face challenges such as labor agreements and bureaucratic processes, which can inflate costs and slow down construction. Many private firms are moving away from a reliance on government funds, which according to them, drives up development cost owing to the red tape. Instead, these firms are exploring alternative financing models. 

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For example, SDS Capital Group is raising an impact fund from private investors, to build a 49-unit low-income housing project in South Los Angeles. While privately financed projects may still rely on government support for operation, recent regulatory changes have facilitated approvals and increased profitability for such developments. Concerns linger regarding the long-term maintenance and sustainability of privately funded housing projects, particularly regarding the welfare of residents and the availability of federal funding for rental assistance programs. Nevertheless, advocates see potential in private-equity models to drive down construction costs and inspire government reform in affordable housing initiatives.

The United States is grappling with a housing crisis characterized by a shortage of millions of units and soaring housing costs for renters and buyers alike. To address this, cities are revising zoning rules to allow for more housing development, focusing on measures such as permitting multifamily homes in diverse neighborhoods and streamlining construction processes.

Minneapolis is leading the way with its progressive zoning reforms, adding 12% to its housing stock in just a five-year period. The city has taken measures such as ending single-family zoning and promoting midsize apartment buildings with 20 or more units. In Houston, minimum lot sizes were reduced from 5,000 square feet to 1,400, allowing for more units to be constructed. Milwaukee, New York City and Columbus, Ohio, are other examples of cities undertaking reform of their codes.

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The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) announced the allocation of over $14.5 million to public housing agencies (PHAs) nationwide to address veteran homelessness. An estimated distribution of more than 1,400 HUD-Veterans Affairs Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH) vouchers will be carried out nationwide. Some of the highest concentration of vouchers will go to Tucson, Arizona; Philadelphia; and Spokane, Washington. These vouchers combine rental assistance from HUD with support services, like case management and clinical services provided by VA. The vouchers have contributed to a 4% decrease in veteran homelessness since 2020 and has housed over 46,000 homeless veterans in 2023 alone.

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Homeownership among Black Americans has consistently trailed behind all others in the country, including by 28% compared to white homeowners. However, according to a new report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Black homeownership is expected rise in the future. 

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How? As more Millennials and Gen Z enter into the home buying market, there will be a rise in minority owners. This is because on average, this demographic is more racially and ethnically diverse. 

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Future predictions - 1.5 million Black households will turn the median homebuying age over the next 5 years. Female and millennial buyers have been driving growth in Black homeownership and will continue to do so. Besides Black households, 775,000 Asian households and 2.2 million Hispanic households will also turn the median homebuying age in the next 5 years.

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Challenges remain - Barriers such as rental affordability, student debt, and mortgage denial rates persist, hindering Black Americans' ability to purchase homes and achieve equitable homeownership rates. Addressing these challenges will be crucial to fostering greater inclusivity in the housing market.

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In 2024, the rental market is poised for transformation with two key factors: the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) tools and heightened competition among the multifamily rental market. A survey by AppFolio indicates that nearly half of property management professionals either use AI or plan to adopt it. Property managers face the challenge of maintaining high occupancy rates amidst a competitive market, with delinquencies identified as a top threat. To thrive in this changing landscape, property managers are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, streamline tasks, and improve employee satisfaction, while also focusing on understanding resident expectations and offering digital services to attract and retain modern renters. A strategic technology approach is crucial for success in 2024 and beyond.

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In 2021 and 2022, the commercial real estate sector experienced a surge in proptech adoption, leading to increased investment. However, a recent report from the Center for Real Estate Technology and Innovation highlights a slowdown in momentum during 2023, attributed to factors such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Venture capital investment in proptech witnessed a significant decline of 42% in 2023, amounting to $11.38 billion, compared to the previous year's total of $19.75 billion and the peak of $32 billion in 2021. Notably, the multifamily segment is being hailed as resilient, owing to continued robust activity in technologies targeting this space. What remains popular are technologies that help solve consumer problems, like reducing fraud.

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Rising rents and reduced working hours during the COVID-19 pandemic have left many U.S. renters struggling to make ends meet, with a record 50% paying over 30% of their income on rent and utilities, per Harvard University's report. The unaffordability trend saw the most significant jump among households earning $30,000 to $74,999 annually, with a third of full-time renters still being heavily cost-burdened. Even lower-income renters, already facing severe challenges, experienced a further increase to 83% being cost-burdened. The report attributes the homelessness surge to a severe housing shortage and rising rent costs, exacerbated by a lack of affordable housing options. Despite a cooling housing market, the cost of construction has hit record highs leading to the construction of predominantly high-end apartments. This is further contributing to a growing affordability gap, with median rents outpacing income growth since 2001. The situation has increased demand for federal housing subsidies, which remain underfunded and insufficient.

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In recent quarters, US bank loans backed by owner-occupied commercial real estate have outperformed those backed by nonowner-occupied properties. This shift began in 2020 when work-from-home policies impacted nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans. The delinquency ratio for nonowner-occupied properties surpassed that of owner-occupied ones in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023. The trend suggests that loans on owner-occupied properties carry less risk, reflecting property owners' likelihood to stay current on loans. However, the performance varies based on bank size, with larger banks experiencing worse delinquency ratios for nonowner-occupied loans. Notably, some major lenders like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup focus heavily on nonowner-occupied properties.

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Modular housing is seen as a solution to housing shortages, offering efficiency, and cost reduction, but many companies like Katerra and Veev have failed to achieve financial viability. What is ailing the manufactured homes market? Experts believe over-regulation by the Government in the form of restrictive zoning laws, hinders industry growth for these companies. They are unable to build at scale and therefore, unable to turn a profit. Perceptions of inferiority and a lack of consistent demand pose challenges as well. The Biden administration has proposed easing regulations but it's still a long road ahead for companies that are working in this space.

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The law of supply and demand doesn't seem to be working in the context of the U.S. housing market. As prices hit record highs, available homes remain at record lows. We had visualized the demand and supply gap in our Housing Count project, so you can check out the status of this gap in your own counties.

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The recent surge in housing development, particularly in states like Florida and Idaho, marks a notable departure from the housing crisis of 2007. This time around, the boom is characterized by a shift towards apartment buildings and condo complexes. Notably, South Dakota, Colorado, Florida, and Arizona are emerging as leaders in the production of multifamily housing units, with only D.C. surpassing them. Contrastingly, some of the traditional multifamily housing strongholds, including states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and New York, are lagging behind in housing production. This shift in dynamics suggests a changing landscape in the housing market, with a move away from high-rise-heavy megalopoli towards a more decentralized approach to housing development.

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• Red counties are permitting more housing development than blue counties
• Part of the reasoning for the above could be because these localities are able to build more cheaply and be more responsive to housing needs
• Another reason could be more restrictive zoning, NIMBYism and environmental regulation in blue counties, which can deter housing growth, as we saw in the failure of the NYC Housing Compact case

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Overall, the analysts didn't find any major correlations between a state’s politics and its housing production.

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(Image credits: Stock photos) 

The housing market is undergoing significant challenges, with 2023 expected to see the lowest home sales since 2010. Despite an anticipated increase in activity in 2024, transactions are projected to remain below average. Mortgage rates, after reaching a two-decade high in 2023, are expected to decrease in 2024 but will likely settle between 6% and 6.5%. This shift may attract both buyers and sellers, reshaping market dynamics.

The trajectory of home prices is uncertain and hinges on the timing of buyer and seller reentry. If sellers enter first, early 2024 could witness modest and short-lived price drops. However, markets with affordability challenges, particularly major coastal areas, face higher risks of corrections. Conversely, a resurgence of buyers before sellers could lead to a competitive market with rising prices.

First-time buyers may initially favor the rental market due to attractive deals, but the strong desire for homeownership, especially among millennials, suggests potential shifts as rates drop and inventory increases in 2024. Demographic factors, including delayed home purchases by boomers and the pent-up demand from millennials, are expected to keep inventory low, supporting firm and growing home prices in 2024.

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While there is optimism, potential wildcards, such as the threat of another coronavirus strain, geopolitical risks, economic recession, and political uncertainties, could impact consumer confidence and influence home buying and selling activity in unforeseen ways.

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The housing market in November 2023 is characterized by surging mortgage rates, high home prices, and limited inventory. Mortgage rates have reached a 23-year high of 7.79%, causing a decline in existing-home sales for the fourth consecutive month. The Federal Reserve has paused its rate hikes, but experts are more concerned about the Fed's future plans for rates. A potential government shutdown could further impact housing market activity, particularly if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can't participate in the mortgage market. Housing affordability remains a significant challenge, and first-time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to enter the market. While a housing market crash is unlikely, some areas may see price declines. Foreclosures are not expected to surge in 2023. Experts advise prospective buyers to focus on their own financial readiness rather than trying to time the market. For sellers, proper pricing, preparation, and online listings are crucial strategies.

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The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has announced updated appraisal requirements for the valuation of manufactured homes certified under Fannie Mae's MH AdvantageTM and Freddie Mac's CHOICEHome® programs. These updates, unveiled by Federal Housing Commissioner Julia Gordon at a conference in Chicago, align FHA appraisal requirements with industry standards, aiming to enhance the valuation of these homes for borrowers seeking FHA-insured mortgages. The changes support the Biden-Harris Administration's Housing Supply Action Plan and its goal of increasing the availability and affordability of manufactured housing. The updated policy allows appraisers to use appropriate site-built-home comparable sales when there are insufficient comparable sales for certified manufactured homes, removing a roadblock to the effectiveness of FHA programs in serving buyers of these energy-efficient and affordable homes.

The National Association of Realtors is facing significant changes as CEO Bob Goldberg resigns earlier than expected, amid ongoing challenges. The association recently lost a federal lawsuit, being held liable for conspiring to artificially inflate commissions in the real estate market, resulting in a $1.78 billion damages award. This verdict may impact real estate agent practices in an environment of rising home prices. The association plans to appeal and seek reduced damages. Additionally, the NAR faced criticism in August when its president, Kenny Parcell, resigned due to sexual harassment claims. Nykia Wright will serve as interim CEO while the association searches for a permanent replacement. Goldberg will continue to offer his expertise as an executive consultant during the transition.

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(Image Credits: NAR website) 

A coalition of trade associations, including CHLA, NAR, and ICBA, has called on the Biden administration to address the historically large spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasuries. The spread, currently over 300 basis points, far surpasses the historic norm of around 150 basis points. The trade groups have urged the Federal Reserve to change its policy, maintaining its stock of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and suspending runoff until the spread stabilizes. They also recommend amending preferred stock purchase agreements (PSPAs) to enable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase their MBS temporarily. These actions could potentially reduce mortgage rates by 100 to 150 basis points, providing market certainty amid rising rates.

The United States faces a severe housing shortage, and while some state and local leaders are trying to address it through new construction, the article argues that rehabilitating and reusing older and historic buildings should be a crucial part of the solution. Approximately 40% of America's building stock is at least 50 years old, and many such structures are in need of upgrades and repairs. Rehabbing these older buildings for housing is often more cost-effective and environmentally friendly than new construction. The Advisory Council on Historic Preservation is considering a policy that encourages such rehabilitation and adaptation, and it could guide federal, state, local, nonprofit, and individual actions. The aim is to increase affordable housing and align with the Biden administration's housing goals.

Property insurance rates continue to soar as insurers aim to mitigate massive losses amid the increasing number of devastating climate change-related disasters. Coastal states like Florida and California are bearing the brunt of the rising insurance costs as wildfires, hurricanes, and storms go on the rise, and fears of earthquake damage remain ever-present. Some insurers have ceased offering property insurance coverage in certain markets altogether, including Allstate, which stopped accepting new applications in California in late 2022, and State Farm, which did the same in 2023.

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Progressive and Nationwide revealed earlier this year that they would no longer provide commercial property coverage for new customers in Florida.

Raising asking rents for apartment units is one avenue some multifamily property owners could pursue to mitigate the high cost of property insurance.